The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its December Short-Term Energy Outlook, updating expectations for biofuel production and consumption through 2026. The December report revises projections for biodiesel and renewable diesel while maintaining forecasts for other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel.
In its latest outlook, the EIA increased its forecast for biodiesel production in 2026. The agency now expects biodiesel production to average 100,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from a previous estimate of 90,000 barrels per day. Production in 2025 is expected to average 80,000 barrels per day, unchanged from last month’s forecast. For context, biodiesel production averaged 110,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Biodiesel consumption forecasts were mixed. The EIA lowered its 2025 consumption estimate to 70,000 barrels per day but maintained its projection that consumption will rise to 90,000 barrels per day in 2026. Biodiesel consumption was higher in 2024, averaging 130,000 barrels per day. Net imports of biodiesel are expected to decline to zero in both 2025 and 2026.
Renewable diesel saw slightly reduced outlooks. The EIA now expects renewable diesel production to average 190,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026, both modestly lower than previous forecasts. Consumption is projected to average 160,000 barrels per day in 2025 and increase to 230,000 barrels per day in 2026.
Forecasts for other biofuels, including renewable jet fuel, renewable heating oil, and renewable gasoline, remain unchanged, with production and consumption expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026.